If you are even vaguely online, this is probably the very last Academy Awards newsletter/opinion piece you think you need, but TRUST ME, it is the one you’ve been waiting for.
Why? Because:
I have watched Oscars for decades without break (one of my first conscious TV memories - waking up after midnight and staying up till 5 or 6am in Serbia to watch Jodie Foster win for “Silence of the Lambs” in her perfect little Armani suit and )
My household does.the.work (a big-ish reason I married Jason is that he, like me, has a video store clerk origin story and is shamelessly a walking IMDB as well) - we see it all, preferably in movie theatres, we argue about it, we can readily reference similar nominee situations in the past, we recognize patterns, we discuss it, we make VERY accurate predictions etc - in short, WE ARE GIANT MOVIE NERDS OVER HERE (be thankful only one of us has a newsletter, though the other one did have a movie podcast, so…)
I am always right.
Anyway - the Oscars are tomorrow and, frankly, I think it is a good year. I don’t really have any major qualms about the nominees (blessedly “Top Gun Maverick” was an anomaly Best Picture Nomination, and while I agree the best director category is lacking WOMANHOOD, Greta Gerwig (and Celine Song and Emerald Fennell) will work forever and win things forever.
Having said that, I will be upset if the following things happen (and they very well might):
a. “Oppenheimer” or “Killers of The Flower Moon” wins Best Picture and/or Director. Christopher Nolan is a director I hate because I think he hates US as an audience (and always, seemingly, talks down to the viewer) and while I love Scorcese (Goodfellas remains a truly perfect movie in my mind), he needs to stop making movies while he’s ahead, so I don’t believe in encouraging him. Also, both of these movies are OVERLONG and bloated, yet somehow miss massively important plot points and character development and would have worked better as a HBO limited series (while watching Oppenheimer I truly just wished I was watching “Chernobyl”). Also: The Zone of Interest is truly the only correct choice here. A once-in-a-generation film.
b. Robert Downey Jr (OR Robert De Niro) wins Best Supporting Actor. Either of the Roberts - A HARD NO! Somehow, while Best Supporting Actress has become a place to recognize mostly cool, up and coming actresses, the Best Supporting Actor is a place where we last-chance-saloon Hollywood royalty that has either never won or not won in a very long time.) Truly, this should have been Charles Melton’s year (who is having the most perfect Paul Newman-esque red carpet season and is the heart, soul, and gut puch of “May December”) but since The Academy couldn’t get their act together to recognize this, this should be Ryan Gosling on lock. Despite the initial nominations outrage, if we are honest with ourselves - it was an impossible role, and anyone else would have messed that role up, and I think about the decisions he made for that role at least once a week, and I can find zero flaws in them, just more to be delighted by. In absentia, Sterling K. Brown or Mark Ruffalo will do.
c. Paul Giammati and Da’Vine Joy Randolph DON’T win for “The Holdovers” - I have seen this movie twice (and will see it every other Christmas from now on till forever) and there is truly no better performances out there right now. Plus, these are good, hard-working actors that have not frozen their faces with plastic surgery and / or succumbed to temptation or Hollywood expectations as to what these roles should be. They are both recognized in this NY Times article what I felt was the finest summary of acting in 2023 and, to me, matters basically more than the actual awards.
d. Bradley Cooper SOMEHOW manages to win for “Maestro” (God knows he really, really, really wants it) and doesn’t use his speech to finally come out as a proud, handsome, middle-aged gay man. Just think about it. Everything will be better after that happens.
e. There isn’t a suprise for Best Actress - Ok, look - Lily Gladstone is probably going to win (and if “Killers of the Flower Moon” is to win anything, I am ok and maybe even excited for this one) but this is, hands down, the most throw-down category this season. Any other year, everyone here would be a shoe-in. It is so strong that I am not even as outraged as I thought I was going to be when I saw Greta Lee was not nominated for “Past Lives”.
Let’s break it down: Emma Stone left her body and entered another level/dimension of acting in Poor Things. Just that dance sequence is an Academy Award winning moment (I mean, they gave it to Al Pacino for less in “Scent of a Woman”). Anette Benning somehow doesn’t have an Oscar yet, and is FLAWLESS and extremely annoying in a very fearless way in Nyad. Carey Mulligan is pure class and vulnerability in an almost Gena Rowlands caliber in “Maestro”. And Sandra Huller (who should have really been nominated 2x for “Zone of Interest” too) is A BEAST and this year’s Tilda Swinton equivalent.
So, I think we MAYBE deserve a surprise here.
f. If they don’t have Rosamund Pike at the very least presenting something - this, Greta Lee and Charles Melton are the snubs that really hurt, but Rosamund is the one I keep coming back to.
g. The screenplay categories are not the true power plays - So, traditionally this is how the Screenplay categories play out is this: they give them to someone who is young-ish, and cool and they want to see continue working, but they don’t feel quite comfortable enough giving the Best Picture or Director to JUST yet (see: Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction, Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman”, Jordan Peele for “Get Out”, Sarah Polley for “Women Talking” - it is basically the RISING STAR award) but this year, with the BEST PICTURE & DIRECTOR races so tight - anything can happen. My personal guess, based on the fine balance they will try to strike: adapted goes to “Barbie” and original goes to “Anatomy of A Fall” or “Past Lives” but… this is the category to watch and, Best Actress aside, the most talent stacked selection.
So, that’s it. That’s all I have.
And here’s my viewing recommendations for the weekend ahead, which are Oscar related but don’t involve any of this year’s major nominees:
In the Mood For Love - if you loved “Past Lives” and have not seen this Kar Wai-Wong masterpiece of restraint and passion - you have to do it IMMEDIATELY. Celine Song clearly slept with a photo of it under her pillow while writing.
“El Conde” - this is a black and white Pinochet-as-a-vampire highwire dark comedy act that is in the mix for cinematography - but it is streaming on Netflix and we could all use something a little different right now?
“Sexy Beast” - there is apparently a Paramount+ show (with Bibi from Bad Sisters!) now inspired by Jonathan Glazer’s early 2000s masterpiece, but you have to watch the Ben Kingsley original first.
“Fire of Love” - nothing to do with any nominations this year, but this previously nominated, Miranda July narrated documentary about a pair of volcanologists whose estate should clearly be receiving royalties from all Wes Anderson movies in perpetuum, is such an underseen gem.
“Dogtooth” - the Yorgos Lanthimos origin story (may it go on forever) and a weirdly good book-end to “Zone of Interest” (but not for reasons you think)
“Frances Ha” & “Damsels in Distress” - the Greta Gerwig short lived ingenue era was such a delight - offbeat and charming and all about dancing.
“Saltburn” - because (again) Rosamund Pike was robbed of a nomination
“Safe” - The Todd Haynes / Julianne Moore origin story.
UNTIL NEXT TIME!!!
(comments are always welcome, but not necessary)
For the record, her husband was correct in 19 of 23 categories for this year's ceremony.